Will the real MVP please stand up?

Or

Two Teams Enter. One Team Leaves.
(Spoiler Alert – It’s the Warriors)

It was not conventional, but after a slew of twists and turns (and collapses of epic proportions) we end up here, with the number one and two seeds playing each other to come out of the Western Conference. Whatever the standings though, let’s not pretend that this is a battle of equals.

The Rockets play in their previous two series (aside from their last 3 games) was less than stellar. James Harden has been extremely inconsistent, and the Rockets oddly enjoyed some of their most successful 5 man lineups against the Clippers when he was on the bench. It’s funny, after the Spurs series mostly everyone, including me, picked the Clippers to just walk right over the Rockets. You really got the sense that they figured something out as a team, and got serious about playing consistently well to fantastic for 48 minutes. And with that series at 3-1, it was the easiest thing to imagine that these Rockets were a Paper Dragon – a talented team on paper and in the regular season, but not a true contender.

Well, they still might not be a true contender, but we can’t underestimate them twice. Just like the Clippers against the Spurs, the Rockets (and particularly their role players) figured something out against the Clippers. If these Rockets can play up to the highs of the last 3 games particularly on the defensive end, where playoff Dwight has once more emerged to terrify at the rim, they can take the Warriors the distance. The Rockets have been tested in a way that few teams ever have been by becoming only the 9^th team to come back from a 3-1 deficit in the playoffs. Not only that, but they did it against a better team – which is exactly what they will have to do this series to stand a chance.

The Warriors took some bruising in the last series, and I think the people of the bay are probably held their collective breath when they fell down 2-1 to the always feisty Grizzlies. Of course their sudden reversal of fortune on their home court was not merely the result of the thrilling play of Marc Gasol, Conley, and Tony Allen, but rather the fact that the Mayors of San Francisco and Oakland had already been discussing a future championship parade, this level of hubris being an affront to The Basketball Gods, their team was punished accordingly.

But there are few things The Basketball Gods (And I, incidentally) love more than a good mid-series adjustment. And Steve Kerr made just such an adjustment, having Andrew Bogut defend Tony Allen, allowing him to sag off and basically play zone in the paint full time in game 4. In the NBA, if you’re open, you’re open for a reason – and Tony Allen struggled to make the Warriors pay for clogging the paint. The Grizz inside out offense dried up, the Warriors hit their 3’s again, and the Grizz were playing from behind without consistent outside shooting the rest of the series.

In any case, these kinds of adjustments are what make good playoff coaches, what makes good playoff teams (Other than, you know, talent) is having highly fungible players, and the Warriors are as fungible as they come. Isn’t that a neat word? It basically means that the Warriors players are each several parts of some world class Swiss army knife, you can put them together in just about any combination and you’ll have the right tools for the situation at hand. And this is their obvious edge against the Rockets, who are missing two starters, including their best perimeter defender in Patrick Beverley and are not built to play more than one way. They are going to do their best to slow the pace when it’s not an open fast break, hit gobs and gobs of free throws, and pray like hell Trevor Ariza can keep the Splash Brothers from their favourite spots beyond the arc.

The Warriors are going to exhaust James Harden. They can throw Klay Thompson, Andre Igoudala, Shaun Livingston, and Harrison Barnes at him without affecting their overall schemes one bit. And who will Harden defend? Any one of those players could take advantage of him on the other end of the floor, particularly as he expends energy quarter by quarter, game by game, against fresh legs on the other end of the floor.

Dwight Howard will need to play a bigger role on offense, which is asking a lot given his immense role on defence. He will be going up against Andrew Bogut and Draymond Green under the rim, both of whom are going to do everything in their power to antagonize him into stupid fouls (and both have a demonstrated knack for this). Dwight will have to outplay them both, and not let any intentional fouling get him out of rhythm or frustrate him into an ejection. Harden will play a key role here as well, he needs to be aggressive driving into the lane and try to get Bogut in early foul trouble – Draymond is amazing and truly defends 1-5, but if he is playing Dwight in the post for 25 plus minutes, that is a huge net win for the Rockets offense.

The Warriors are the deepest team in the league by a country mile, but the Rockets bench showed some serious grit last series. It seems a lot to ask but some combination of Jason Terry, Josh Smith, and Corey Brewer are going to have to outplay Dre, Shaun Sneaky-Good-Post-Ups Livingston, and Harrison Barnes. Don’t be surprised when McHale elects to hack Iggy at some point in this series, for all his skills he still shoots just shy of 60% from the stripe. That may not seem like much of an edge, but if the other option is Curry and Klay in rhythm? Easy choice.

This series will seemingly be a referendum on the season long “Curry or Harden”? MVP discussion, but don’t be fooled. Both are incredible players, but it has been Curry both in the regular season and the playoffs. People consistently underestimate the difference between taking a team from good to great, and from great to historically good. But if the Rockets can even take this to seven games, you’ll hear the same arguments again. Harden is more important to the Rockets success! Look at the record he built with the spare parts and castoffs of other teams!

Well, those spare parts won the last series and got them this far. (Shout out to Ex-Knick Pablo Prigioni, Hero of Game 7. You are missed)

If this goes seven, I won’t reconsider whether or not Harden should have been the MVP, but I will seriously reconsider whether or not Kevin McHale should have been getting nods for Coach of the Year.

Prediction – Warriors in 6