“With the number 4 pick in the NBA Draft. The New York Knicks select – Oh you’ve got to be freaking kidding me – “

This promises to be an interesting draft for Knicks fans. And as with the Knicks, when things are interesting, they are equal parts terrifying. For example “The Knicks are interested in Melo” is interesting. “The Knicks gut entire squad for a trade rather than wait for his impending free agency”. Terrifying. Dig it?

As the only Lottery team to drop (to the Lakers no less, wonder what blood magic Mitch Kupchak had to pull with that one) Knicks fans are going to be waiting anxiously to find out what the hell is going to happen at number 4. This is the highest pick Knicks fans have been able to look forward to since Patrick Ewing,(aka  the Basketball Hero of my childhood), and there are a number of possible scenarios. Lets take a quick look at a few of the most likely.

Scenario one. AKA The Obvious.

All the Kristaps talk and hemming and hawing about “The New NBA” are revealed to be pure unadulterated bull shiiiiiiiit. The top 3 go how they were projected months ago, the two big men proto-stars Towns and Okafor go off the board followed quickly by Russell at 3 to the Sixers.

Moments following the Knicks drop in the lottery this scenario seemed a forgone conclusion, and I immediately did a deep dive on the Adventures of Emmanuel Mudiay in the Chinese Basketball Association. I still strongly feel if the draft goes to the original script that the Knicks ought to draft Mudiay, the kid is an athletic, long, driven guard with great speed and vision ala a John Wall type. His ceiling is an elite playmaker, elite defender, average shooter – for the record he commits one of the greatest sins against the Basketball Gods there is (I’ll compile an exhaustive list someday in the offseason), he cannot make free throws worth a damn. Now mind you, neither can the reigning Finals MVP. I like Mudiay quite a bit, and would be pretty happy if the Knicks simply took him at 4.

And while I hope this is the case, there is what I feel to be a more likely scenario gnawing away at the edges of my remaining sanity.

Scenario two. AKA The Knicks Stay Being the Knicks.

Everything goes to script but the Knicks, fearing Mudiays ability to play in the Triangle (AHHHHHHHHHHH) trade down for a veteran player and a lower value first round pick, and take one of Cameron Payne, Trey Lyles, Frank “The Undefeated Season Killer” Kaminsky, Willie Trill, or Justise “League” Winslow.

This seems increasingly likely to be, particularly with the talk about guards like Bledsoe and Marcus Smart being on the table. Willie Trill is looking at likely ankle surgery to fix some shoddy plate and screw job he got done on his ankle, which makes it likely he’ll miss 6 months whenever a team decides to opt for that. That to me decreases the likelihood that the Knicks “Win Now Worry about Your Forfeited Future Later” braintrust will probably pass.

The pick I like the most in this scenario is Cameron Payne, and we somehow  get a decent rim protector or 3 + D wing out of it, but there are few appealing packages out there.  Word is though that the Knicks like Kaminsky best, who will probably otherwise go to Charlotte at 9 (who are said to covet Mudiay if they can climb)  – who have some attractive players including Kemba Walker, MKG, and the recently acquired former Blazer 3 + D wing Nic Batum. There might be something here, and the Knicks are right to explore all possibilities, but I will scream bloody murder if the Knicks trade out of the 4 spot and don’t get another young 2 way player as part of the deal.

Scenario 3. AKA The Basketball Gods Shine On the Mecca.

The Lakers or Philly takes Porzingis, and the Knicks draft Russell. This is in my opinion the best possible outcome. The concerns about Russell not being an elite athlete (particularly next to say, Mudiay) are real. But you can’t build court vision like this guy has in a gym, and you can’t really even do it with film. Sidebar – this is one of the weirdest parts about the various Brandon Knight deals that have taken place the last couple years. He’s an athlete, he defends alright, he shoots ok, but his court vision is one or two steps to slow. Russell sees the floor the way coaches dream of, some of his passing highlights look downright Jason-Williams-Like. He shot 41 perecent from deep in college, and though that will come down a bit with the further line in the pro’s, the kid can straight up shoot it. We’ve been told over and over that this style of play is the future of the NBA, and if he falls to the Knicks, even Phil Jackson won’t screw this up.

Scenario 4. The Last Minute Shake Up.  With a Boogie or LMA deal now seeming likely (or done), the Lakers abandon the Okafor pick in lieu of Russell, leaving the Sixer’s with a tricky decision.  Or the Lakers take Porzingis, either way the Sixers seem (publically anyway) less enamored with Okafor then some teams and they may trade down with the Celtics for a bucket-load of assets including Marcus Smart and 2 later picks in this draft.

But there is a slim possibility if the Celtics can’t produce a “Grandfather Offer” (eg an Offer they can’t refuse minus the gun to the head part) that the Knicks wind up with Okafor at 4. Now there are some real concerns about Okafor, he’s a one way player, he can’t shoot free throws, and some are questioning his work ethic. The latter seems ridiculous to me, as he’s been working his way up the draft board since middle school, and you don’t do that on talent alone. And as much as I dislike the idea of a centerpiece 5 that can’t defend the paint…he is 19. If the worst thing you can say about a prospect is that he is lost on defence well, that is said about 90+ percent of all rookies their first couple years in the league.

And if the best thing you can is that he has a suite of post moves comparable to Tim Duncan? (Not when he was drafted, like, Tim Duncan now) Then you draft that kid and take a shot at making him an average defender through player development.

Final Thoughts.

This draft will likely determine the arch of the Knicks fortunes for the rest of the Phil Jackson tenure and beyond, the idea that he might decide against Mudiay (or trade down for Kaminsky) because of that system is minorly terrifying and supremely antiquated. I just want the Knicks to draft the talent that comes to them, whether that is an Okafor ( 5% chance), a Russell (20%) or a Mudiay (75%). Watching a bad team is so much more gratifying when you have a young core to follow along the way, and any of these kids projected top 5 could be multi-all-star caliber players with the right nurturing.

I’ve wanted so long to cheer for a player drafted by the Knicks to develop into a star and tonight will either by the first step onto that road, or another soul crushing “What If”. I’ve made my offerings to the Basketball Gods, and all there is to do for Knicks fans (and everyone else for that matter) is watch and wait.

The NBA draft is existential angst at its finest, and I’ll just be happy when it’s over and the horrors of potentiality give way to the mundanity of what is. Until Free Agency of course. Fuck.