Clippers-Blazers Mid-Series Check In

Or

“More people worship the Rising Sun than the Setting Sun”

(but the Setting Sun will still kick the Rising Suns ass from time to time)

 

The Set Up

With the series standing at 2-0 and headed to Portland, many are quickly backpedaling away from the “must call upset” of the first round. It was always ridiculous to call an upset here, and the prevalence of this narrative speaks to some combination of the feel good Cinderella vibes around the Blazers, lingering Clipper dislike (read: hatred) and the fact that even though the Clippers have once more been a great regular season team (even without Blake Griffin) nobody expects them to make much noise in the playoffs.

To the last point I say: ok, I’ll give you that.

But! This Clippers team is still really, really good. Their starting 5 remains as potent as ever and their role players are looking more comfortable than they have in a long time. People are in love with the young and hungry Blazers, but reality is setting in – Damian Lillard is amazing, but Chris Paul is his worst possible match up, capable of shutting down just about every action Dame tries to initiate. Newly anointed Most Improved Player CJ Mccollum is a great young guard, but he’s older than you think (24) making him older than guards Kyrie Irving, Bradley Beal, Brandon Knight, and Dennis Schroeder. The honeymoon period where Al Faruq Aminu was a 3 point sniper has definitively passed. Meyers Leonard remains out for the season, and to call Mason Plumlee a poor man’s Deandre Jordan is more of a stretch than expecting DJ to lead the team in free throw percentage. The Blazers have done a great job of rebuilding on the fly and their future is bright, but the Clippers, perhaps never destined for more than a Western Conference Semis defeat, are just too good for them.

The Stakes

The stakes for the two teams are similarly lopsided. Both Doc Rivers the GM and Doc the Coach have been upfront about the fact that the window for this Clippers core is drawing to a close and CP3, Blake, Deandre Jordan, and JJ Redick have formed one of the absolute best starting units in the NBA for 3 years running now.

That being said, they have had less and less playoff success even as their team has grown together with experience. Where once they could knock around a young Warriors team, nobody takes their chances in the second round too seriously. This might have been simply the case of a team that got good at the wrong time, but it also can’t be ignored that the Clippers have been perennial chokers the last few seasons.

Chris Paul is one of the best point guards of all time, his playmaking, offensive efficiency, and defensive tenacity are all off the charts. But with rare exception ( Read: hamstring game-winner over the Spurs last year) Chris Paul has been shaky in the playoffs, often turning the ball over in key moments and showering visible frustration upon his teammates when they also fail to perform. Paul is playing for more than a legacy, he’s playing for his dignity. It isn’t fair that one of the best point guards of his generation should be in this position, but the Basketball Gods are rarely fair.

Blake Griffin was outstanding in the 2015 playoffs, putting up an MVP like 25, 10, and 6 average. But Blake has been worse than CP3 in tight situations, turning the ball over with the game on the line on numerous occasions and allowing the Rockets to steal their appearance in the Western Conference Finals. Given the way the season unfolded, if the Clippers fold, it may be Blake that first finds himself on the move.

The Blazers on the other hand are playing with house money this year as nobody expected them to make the playoffs, much less the 5 seed in a highly competitive Western Conference. Neil Olshey should receive ample consideration for Executive of the Year for this group, with only 1 starter returning they have managed to put together a lot of young players that seem to like playing for each other. This is really hard to do particularly when you have a ball dominant guard that creates much of your offense (See Rockets, Houston). It’s no secret that this teams greatest strength is its back court, and it is just unrealistic to expect these over achievers to pull off the upset when Chris Paul will be defending Dame possession after possession.

And that’s fine. The Blazers will lose this series, and unless they make serious adjustments they were unwilling to make in game 2, it will be a sweep. But its good experience for a young team, and given where they started out the year, a 4-0 defeat will only leave a slightly bitter aftertaste after what was a stellar season.

 

The Game Plan for the Clips

The game plan for the Clippers has been to play through their bigs, pound the ball inside past Plumlee and Aminu, and they’ve been doings so at will.  Griffin has shown no signs of rust whatsoever, he’s been extremely aggressive around the rim and seems totally at ease facilitating the action from the elbows. Mason Plumlee had a great performance in game 2 and really kept the Blazers in it longer than they probably should have been, but DJ is gobbling up rebounds and put backs, and with no reason for the Clips centers to ever leave the paint, the Blazers guards are finding themselves rejected at the rim over and over (Shout out to former Knick Cole Aldrich!).

The Clips bigs are more than competent enough to allow Paul, Redick, Rivers and co to stay home on the wing, and that’s what they’ve done. They have blitzed and trapped Dame at will, forcing him to give up the ball over and over and getting him away from his favourite spots.They will continue to let anyone but Dame shoot if the Blazers let them, and they will win by doing so.

The Clippers only need to draw even in guard play to dominate, and so far JJ Redick and Paul are beating the Blazers starting duo handily.

The Game Plan for the Blazers

If Portland is going to have any chance, they are going to have to get the Clippers out of rhythm with their defence and shoot the lights out from downtown, this means they are going to have to hack, hack, hack DJ out of the lineup early and often.

This means that the Blazers will not have many opportunities for fast breaks, and so their set plays and half-court execution have to be exceptional. This is asking a lot of a young team, and if they go this route they will have to get the most out of that youth, and try to pass and run the Clips into the ground, with long possessions, lots of ball movement, and endless cutting to wear the older Clippers out. They did a better job making more cuts in game 2, but they went away from this as the game went on and it was to their detriment.

They need to give more minutes to Gerald Henderson and Mo Harkless, both of whom have played great all round ball in games 1 and 2. They need to consider going even smaller than they have already, particularly since the Clippers are not respecting Aminu’s shot (and he’s not making them) he needs to sit. They need to stretch the floor and draw at least one of the Clippers bigs to the perimeter, and Aminu isn’t cutting it in that department.

Further they need to recognize that they’re being funneled into the shot blocker way too much, and would be better off running a lot more high screen, or double screen action above the break to get Lillard some clean looks from 3. And they can’t go away from this just because shots don’t fall, the paint may look vulnerable but the Clippers are much happier with Dame driving than shooting.

Final Word

I love Lillard and this Blazers team has a lot of heart, but the Clippers are set to rip it out of their chest. If the Blazers don’t make major adjustments on offense, focus on 3 point shooting, and make liberal use of the hack-a-strategy early and often, this Cinderella story is set to call curtain will before midnight.

 

CLIPPERS IN FIVE