Life Flies Forth Toward One With Ever Quickening Velocity

or

My Draft Board got totally ruined but I’m posting it anyway
(Now with added commentary)

 

As promised folks, here is my slightly outdated draft article that I simply don’t have time to rewrite with the kind of depth it really deserves. Instead, I present it to you as a time capsule of simpler times, when the relative back court fits of Thomas and Fultz, Russell and Ball, seemed like important topics. Enjoy an extra helping of parenthesis, run on sentences, and over used conjunctions. I give you my heart.

I’m confident that with one or two minor adjustments – you probably won’t even notice them –  everything written below will be just as relevant now as it was two weeks ago. Totally confident.

 

Lottery Teams Drafting by Need

The NBA Draft is quickly approaching, and for the lesser teams in the NBA, their franchise hopes literally hang in the balance. Here’s a quick overview of the needs each squad will be looking to fill in the top 10 spots of the draft and the players they’re likely to take.

Celtics

#1 – Markelle Fultz

Markelle Fultz. Not playing in the tournament was supposed to hurt Fultz stature (Apparently in Danny Ainge’s eyes it did), but the play of Lonzo Ball has only served to solidify his position as the likely number 1 overall pick. Thanks to the Golden Goose that is the Pierce-Garnett trade the Celtics now hold the number 1  number 3 pick the same year as being in the Eastern Conference Finals. Complicating factors is the rise of their own small statured star, Isaiah Thomas, who will demand a maximum contract at the end of the 2017-2018 season.  But though Thomas has become a folk hero the people of Boston, Danny Ainge is as ruthless a competitor as they come and won’t hesitate to move Thomas if Fultz impresses early. That said, who’s to say that they can’t play together during the off season together? Both Fultz and Thomas are great movers off the ball, both can shoot, and Fultz can play big enough to guard 2’s. It’s tantalizing to think that what this back court will in all likelihood  could have been had they stood pat and added another top 5 draft talent next year.

If Fultz is a star like everyone was projecting a week ago, Ainge will regret this trade. If he isn’t, he won’t. It seems simple, but it really isn’t.

Lakers

#2 – Lonzo Ball

Lonzo Ball. UCLA Alum with a little Magic to his game, and certainly the new sheriff in town Ervin Johnson is in a position to know it when he sees it. Lonzo disappointed against Kentucky in the tournament which may have hurt his stock some (Translation, the Kings wouldn’t trade the 5th and 10th picks for him), but in addition to his dazzling array of skills he has that undeniable “it” factor that the Lakers legacy demands of its best players. He’s a natural facilitator and good off ball player that wants to function in a high pace offense. His value in the half court is less certain and his release mechanics might inhibit him from becoming a volume pull up shooter, but Ball looks the part of the next Lakers star player. He is a low usage, high IQ player that makes everyone around him better.

It might seem complicated to pair him with starting point guard Russell, but Russell has far from locked down his role with the franchise going forward (I’ll say!). The Lakers will let them compete for the top job, and at times play them together sliding Ball to the 2 guard spot . Ignore the noise about Big Baller Brand and Lavar Ball’s outlandish claims, the kid can play – and now that the Lottery Gods have smiled on the Lakers once more, Ball will have a shot at perhaps the greatest pantheon in the NBA.

Good luck on the Swamp Dragons next year Russell!

Sixers

#3 – Malik Monk

This is a very interesting case, as around the league many consider Josh Jackson a solid number 3 on their draft boards. But though he caught fire for the latter half of his season at Kansas, his shot mechanics and free throw % (an abysmal 56%) leave glaring questions when it comes to his ability to reliably knock down jumpers at the NBA level.  Though Jackson is an undeniable talent, the Sixers are perhaps finally in a position to begin considering fit. Now, 9 times out of 10 I would guess a team would the best player available, but the Sixers might be a unique case.  The Sixers lack a “traditional” point guard and perimeter shooting to create space for Embiid and last year’s number 1 pick (and 6 ft 10 in) Ben Simmons.  With just how vocal coach Brett Brown has been about giving the Simmons-at-point experiment a real shot, don’t expect them to fill what some would say is their biggest nominal need at the 1. (In fairness…did anyone expect them to get Fultz? That shit was crazy even as it happened. I’m still in disbelief)

So if not Jackson or perhaps Fox, what will the Sixers do?(Trade for Markelle Fultz) What Brian Colangelo might look to do instead is to offset their greatest offensive weakness by adding Malik Monk from Kentucky trading for Markelle Fultz. Hell, the Sixers may even be able to trade down a few spots and still land Monk, for MARKELLE FREAKING FULTZ a near 40% shooter from deep.

Monk proved over the course of the year and the tournament that he works great off the ball and will not shy away from the big stage  that he’s in the mold of a more athletic Lou Williams  less good version of Markelle Fultz, who may in the long run be able to run more pick and roll.

Monk Fultz was limited in his opportunities at Washington because is team was terrible as a primary ball handler due to the rise of fellow lottery pick De’Aaron Fox, but it’s not a forgone conclusion that he can’t take backup ball handling duties. Remember that Devin Booker Ben Simmons was similarly lost among a star studded Kentucky team crappy supporting cast not too long ago, and you can talk yourself into Monk Fultz as a competent future playmaker in addition to a scorer. A starting lineup of Embiid, Simmons, Covington  and Monk  Fultz?

“Trust the Process” indeed.

 

 Suns

#4 – Josh Jackson

It has been many years since “7 Seconds or Less” and the path to relevance for the Suns is not going to be easy (This path definitely does NOT include trading for Kevin Love to facilitate a PG13 to Cav’s deal).  As the saying goes though, when you’re at the bottom there is nowhere to go but up. And the Suns worked hard to get to the bottom, facilitating a tanking job as shameless as any of the finest Hinkie-led efforts in Philadelphia. But unlike the Sixers, the Suns don’t have a top 3 pick to show for it. They are in desperate need of forwards that can score, facilitate and defend alongside the dynamic Devin Booker. Enter the aforementioned Josh Jackson, a versatile forward who can defend 1 through 5, play-make, rebound, and attack the basket. If Jackson’s hot shooting season translates into a consistent outside stroke, he could very well end up the best player in the draft. This is far from a sure thing, and Jackson is a definite risk to never reach his star ceiling. But even if his shot doesn’t develop, his highly competitive spirit and defensive upside will bring a much needed edge to a Suns squad that hasn’t seen the playoffs in 7 seasons.

Kings

#5 – De’Aaron Fox

De’Aaron Fox improved his stock perhaps more than any other prospect by his participation in the tournament, where in addition to thoroughly outplaying Lonzo, he also demonstrated an ability to score and take over games that left front offices buzzing. A post-Cousins Sacramento would be lucky to land Fox, who would have a chance to develop along a John Wall like trajectory. He has incredible speed and explosiveness unmatched by anyone in the lottery, and unlike Wall he has shown full time devotion to the defensive side of the ball. It would be an understatement to call his 3 point shot a work in progress, but his free throw rate and mechanics are promising at least – his recent addition of a reliable mid-range pull up should also give the Kings hope that he can develop a passable outside shot in time. Fox is by reputation a worker, with a tenacity that translates into a hyper aggressive play style on both end of the floor. He’s been wowing front offices around the league during the interview process, and if teams are torn between two similarly attractive prospects Fox’s personality will push him over the edge.

 

Magic

#6 – Jason Tatum

Jason Tatum. The Magic are one of the more rudderless organizations in the league,(Cavaliers/Knicks/Lakers/Pacers/Bulls/Hawks: Hold my beer)  to the degree that we can’t even say for sure who will be making this pick come draft day (Do we think John Hammond brought his own white board?) after the recent firing of noted trade mark Rob Hennigan. Their team is full of defense first players that try to do too much on offense, for all his virtues, Bismack Biyombo should never have a post-up in an NBA game. Ever. The Magic have struggled in recent years to identify the right players in the draft, contributors with potential to grow into larger roles with the right developmental regimen. What they lack is one of the most valuable commodities in the NBA, a go to “give me the damn ball in crunch time” scorer. Jason Tatum fits the bill. He’s an isolation scorer polished beyond his years in the Carmelo Anthony mold. His handle needs work and he still settles for too many tough mid-range jumpers (which limit his attempts at the line) but he is a very efficient scorer when he gets to his spots. He has the speed and frame to defend both forward spots, but is far from polished on that end. The outline of a complete two way star forward is here and Frank Vogel has a proven player development track record (see: George, Paul). He’s not a sure thing because he is not as physically dominant at the rim as Melo was, but his jab step will make you think you’re seeing his ghost.

 

Wolves

#7 – Jonathon Isaac

The Wolves are one of the more difficult teams to get a feel for (In retrospect it turns out that they are about average!). From the outside it seems that their biggest need is the same as it was last year, at the point guard spot. And while this is a draft ostensibly loaded with prospective star point guards – Thibodeou might not be willing to move on from last year’s selection Kris Dunn. Dunn came in as a 4 year college player and was touted as ready to compete on both ends from day one. He struggled mightily however and his improvement has left a lot to be desired. It’s of course still possible that Dunn turns the corner, and the lesson has been learned time and time again about giving up on young guards too soon in their careers. Thibs has gotten a lot out of point guards as a coach before, so I’m guessing that they try to ride things out with Dunn a little bit longer. So assuming they don’t go for a guard, I think they will look at someone like Jonathon Isaac.

Isaac doesn’t project to have star ceiling like the other top wings in the draft, but he arguably has the highest floor. He is talented and committed on the defensive end and will be able to switch on defense, exactly the kind of versatility that Thibs has been sorely missing on his roster. Perhaps most encouraging is that even though he’s extremely thin, he rebounds and blocks very well for his position. This shows a tenacity that will only benefit from his further developing body, but for now he will get outmatched in the post by most traditional 4’s. He’s an ok shooter with decent release – he won’t be shooting a high volume of pull ups any time soon –  but that’s not what he Wolves really need. Indeed it’s possible he’ll benefit from a reduced load that would come from playing a supporting role to the transcendent Karl Anthony-Towns and former number 1 pick Andrew Wiggins.

Knicks

#8 – Frank Ntilikina

The Knicks struggles this year are directly tied to KP’s stagnating development. Though the big man improved in every category, his growth stalled when the team’s fortunes took a nose dive after a promising 14-10 start. The Knicks need to divest themselves of the Derrick Rose experiment (Actually they shouldn – no, kidding, this is an Evergreen Statement) and find a point guard that is a willing passer, wing defender, and secondary scorer.  Phil Jackson seems determined to find players that will fit inside the Triangle offense and Knicks owner Jim Dolan seems determined to enable him. Additionally the Knicks, having struck gold by relying on their intel recently, have good reason to rely on the wisdom of their European scouting division and particularly one Clarence Gains. All that taken into account the Knicks will take a very close look at young Belgian (No he’s not French) point guard prospect Frank Ntilikina. The 18 year old Ntilikina is one of the bigger mysteries at this year’s draft, as unlike most other lottery picks he acted as a role player for his club team in France. Coming off the bench meant fewer minutes and fewer opportunities, but it also meant that the fundamentals of his game were on display. He can defend, he makes the right play, and he doesn’t go outside himself.

His biggest flaw is that he doesn’t have the natural explosion to get to the basket that almost every star point guard has, and so he ends up pulling up on his drives almost without fail. His lack of speed doesn’t affect his tenacity on defense but does limit his ability to get to the basket and make plays. The downside if this doesn’t’ change is that he just won’t be an efficient volume scorer in the NBA. The upside if it does? This is literally the only thing preventing him from showing as a sure fire star, and there’s a chance that Frank ends up the steal of the first round 2 years from now.

Unlike many of the other guards in the top 10, it doesn’t seem that Frank is as well suited to be a ball dominant player for his squad. But as a supporting player to Porzingis he might be just right. His wingspan is rumoured to be in the 7 foot range, which means that if he puts on weight it’s conceivable that down the road he could switch 1 through 3. Players on the wing that can guard 1-3 and stroke 3’s are very valuable players even if they never become stars.

Mavericks

#9 – Dennis Smith

The Mavericks are caught between eras, much like the final years of the recent Kobe led Lakers. There is the vague (Read: very* vague. ) outline of a young core – Barnes and Noel – that the Mav’s hopes develop into at least pseudo-stars in their own right. But for now Dirk and JJ Barea are carrying the fire of a quickly fading age of Mavericks glory. They have a clear need at point guard to eventually take over from the 32 year old Barea and in theory this draft should provide some good options. However, because Cuban refused to sully any of Dirks remaining years and commit to a full on tank job, they don’t have the possibility of drafting one of the 3 clearly elite point guards in the top 5. The Mavericks will take the best point guard available. And if things go according to the above, that player will be Dennis Smith.

Smith is perhaps the strongest point guard in the likely lottery group and excels at one on one scoring and flashes potential of being a perfect facilitator for the modern NBA. Smith is built to run the modern pick and roll offense, and studying under Carlisle will give him a great chance to maximize his ceiling. He picks up his dribble too much and he had difficulty finding chemistry with his teammates as the star of a disappointing N.C. State squad, but surround this kid with NBA shooters and run the high pick and roll and good things will happen.  Could personality issues derail his career? Yes. But Mark Cuban has to like the odds of taking a player at 9 who has even an outside shot of being the best player in the draft.

 

Kings

#10 – Lauri Markkanen

The beauty of the Kings position is that they just need bodies. The Kings don’t have to draft by need because literally everything is a need. That said, they need to nail these picks if their franchise is going to have any kind of playoff (let alone championship) aspiration in the next 5 years. The Kings would be wise to spread out their risk some and take a high tier prospect with one of the higher projected “floors” and pair them with more of a long shot with the worse of their two picks. Outside the top 8 the star certainty in this draft fades, but there remain numerous players with the glint of something special. If they can land Fox or one of the other premier point guard talents, the Kings should feel comfortable taking a shot at more of a project player.

The project in question could be Lauri Markkanen, a 7 foot Fin with an outside stroke unmatched by any other player in the lottery save perhaps Malik Monk. Markkanen has the best shooting splits of anyone in the draft, and with his size it will be extremely difficult for even centers at the NBA level to bother his shot once he gets into his motion. Like most power forwards his size, strength and conditioning will be an issue early on in his career, but the promising play of Porzingis shows the path forward for players in this mold. He doesn’t make plays or rebound as effectively as you would like, but the upside from a positional stand point is there. He is surprisingly agile on switches, and if nurtured correctly he could have a future as a spot 5 in super small ball lineups.

The Kings haven’t adapted to the modern NBA as quickly as some other franchises, drafting plodding centers in draft after draft. But they’ll give Markkanen real thought based on his immediate value as a shooter alone.

Note, the kid isn’t going to win any personality contests. He gave an interview on the Full 48 Pod Tuesday that may hurt Finland’s tourism industry going forward. It is not an exaggeration to say that his closing Borat impersonation was the most original thing he brought to the table.

Notes

• *1 A very vague outline. Like we tried to put white out over the outline but you can tell by the texture of the paper that something was there once so you don’t get a full sense of the picture but also you don’t want to accidentally trace over it in case you tear through the paper. That level of vague.