Eyes on Masai

or

Knicks Pursuit of Former Executive of the Year Most Promising News Since….Well…Uh

 

Like the other downtrodden denizens of Knicks fandom, I opened my eyes this morning to the fading sound of air raid sirens. As I turned over in my bed and looked at my phone I blinked against the pale grey light like the Vault Dweller seeing the outside world for the first time. I tasted ash as it fell like snowflakes onto my tongue. Where once Madison Square Garden had stood, there remained only the crater left by the mother of all Woj Bombs.

Ok so I’m being a little bit dramatic, but this is still some crazy shit right?

I don’t have any particular interest at this moment in relitigating Phil Jackson’s ignoble tenure with the Knicks, because there are a million people better than me that have done and/or will do that very thing.

For now, throw out your pizza, watermelon slices, and traffic cones while you can. The purges have begun, and none who harbor idols to this dark time will be granted mercy (letter A you’re on notice).

The King is dead. Long live the King.

But who exactly is that going to be? For the duration of the current interregnum Steve Mills is our man, but before Our Glorious Leader’s corpse was even cold, there came whispers on the wind.

The Knicks are targeting Masai Ujiri.

This is both makes sense and is absolutely baffling. In favour of the former, Ujiri was the architect of one the more damaging swindles (and that’s saying something) that the Knicks have fallen prey to in recent years, so it is not surprising that his name looms large in James Dolan’s mind. On the other hand, Ujiri was both promoted to President of Basketball Operations and given a 5 year extension only last September precisely to head off this kind of headhunting. Putting aside the fact that Dolan just fired Phil a month after picking up his option for $24 million over the next 2 seasons, people with that kind of job security don’t generally change teams easily. Zach Lowe’s initial tweet seemed to dash any Knicks hopes of pursuing Masai without forking over some assets, which the Knicks can ill afford to do. But an article in the Toronto Star by Bruce Arthur intimates that Masai has the authority to leave for the Knicks, uninhibited, if he so chooses. No formal offer has been made that we are yet aware of, but the Knicks ought to make it very soon.

But will Masai accept? No doubt he is already weighing the pros and cons.

According to Arthur, Masai is paid like a top five executive in the league. Even while paying for Phil’s ghost the Knicks can make him number one overnight by a comfortable margin, not to mention the added profile and prestige that comes with winning in New York. But the price of glory is to work for James Dolan, and that is a Faustian bargain that many have made but none have come out the better for having made it.

It’s possible times have changed though. We’re not exactly going through Perestroika at the Garden (and certainly not Glasnost) but if Phil’s tenure is any indication, direct interference in player personnel decisions is no longer on Dolan’s plate. Masai would have some reason to feel assured that he could build the team his way, over the long term.

That may not be enough, mind. Dolan will keep his sycophants throughout the business ops side of MSG, and communications internal and external will still blare the same stilted propaganda about “The Mecca” and “The World’s Greatest Arena” hearkening to a bygone Golden Age that he hadn’t the slightest thing to do with. Masai enjoys the confidence of his current employers, the respect of his peers, and the relative freedom to act and say as he thinks best. It must be troubling to see how diminished Phil Jackson’s reputation will be after a mere three years at the helm in New York.

But Phil Jackson’s ruin was his own doing, not Dolan’s, and Masai will have seen that too.

From a purely basketball standpoint then, which job is more appealing?

The path to contention with either franchise is murky at best, but the Knicks best chance of getting there is 21, whereas the Raptors’ is an unrestricted free agent on the wrong side of 30.

A tear down in To-Raptor-Land (shouts Jet!) would probably be greeted with more skepticism up front then one in New York. This is the greatest period of sustained success that the Raptors have ever had as a franchise. Before you snigger too loudly, remember, we cheer for the Knicks. Moves like trading DeRozan might be in the best interest of the franchise, but it’s unclear that even with all the political capital he has accrued through years of steady work that Masai could execute such drastic tie cutting unscathed. Nor is it clear what the return would be. The other players that Toronto has already probably make them too good to get deep into the lottery, and signing up for an annual sweep by the Cleveland Cavaliers (or coming super-team Boston Celtics) might sap fan enthusiasm for Masai’s leadership as quickly as it was earned.

The Knicks have bad salary, but also good prospects and future picks. New York has a market advantage in that games will sell out whether the team is bad or not, the last near two decades are irrefutable proof of just that. If Masai wanted to begin a 3 year tear down in New York, the fan base would rally behind him. Porzingis has as much positional potential and talent as any player his age, and he still has two years remaining on his rookie deal. Real things are made of this stuff, and things built carefully now could transform the franchise for the next 20 years.

For now though, these are just visions cobbled together among the ashes of an all too familiar world. But a better world is possible.

And hiring Masai may start us down the path to get there.

Life Flies Forth Toward One With Ever Quickening Velocity

or

My Draft Board got totally ruined but I’m posting it anyway
(Now with added commentary)

 

As promised folks, here is my slightly outdated draft article that I simply don’t have time to rewrite with the kind of depth it really deserves. Instead, I present it to you as a time capsule of simpler times, when the relative back court fits of Thomas and Fultz, Russell and Ball, seemed like important topics. Enjoy an extra helping of parenthesis, run on sentences, and over used conjunctions. I give you my heart.

I’m confident that with one or two minor adjustments – you probably won’t even notice them –  everything written below will be just as relevant now as it was two weeks ago. Totally confident.

 

Lottery Teams Drafting by Need

The NBA Draft is quickly approaching, and for the lesser teams in the NBA, their franchise hopes literally hang in the balance. Here’s a quick overview of the needs each squad will be looking to fill in the top 10 spots of the draft and the players they’re likely to take.

Celtics

#1 – Markelle Fultz

Markelle Fultz. Not playing in the tournament was supposed to hurt Fultz stature (Apparently in Danny Ainge’s eyes it did), but the play of Lonzo Ball has only served to solidify his position as the likely number 1 overall pick. Thanks to the Golden Goose that is the Pierce-Garnett trade the Celtics now hold the number 1  number 3 pick the same year as being in the Eastern Conference Finals. Complicating factors is the rise of their own small statured star, Isaiah Thomas, who will demand a maximum contract at the end of the 2017-2018 season.  But though Thomas has become a folk hero the people of Boston, Danny Ainge is as ruthless a competitor as they come and won’t hesitate to move Thomas if Fultz impresses early. That said, who’s to say that they can’t play together during the off season together? Both Fultz and Thomas are great movers off the ball, both can shoot, and Fultz can play big enough to guard 2’s. It’s tantalizing to think that what this back court will in all likelihood  could have been had they stood pat and added another top 5 draft talent next year.

If Fultz is a star like everyone was projecting a week ago, Ainge will regret this trade. If he isn’t, he won’t. It seems simple, but it really isn’t.

Lakers

#2 – Lonzo Ball

Lonzo Ball. UCLA Alum with a little Magic to his game, and certainly the new sheriff in town Ervin Johnson is in a position to know it when he sees it. Lonzo disappointed against Kentucky in the tournament which may have hurt his stock some (Translation, the Kings wouldn’t trade the 5th and 10th picks for him), but in addition to his dazzling array of skills he has that undeniable “it” factor that the Lakers legacy demands of its best players. He’s a natural facilitator and good off ball player that wants to function in a high pace offense. His value in the half court is less certain and his release mechanics might inhibit him from becoming a volume pull up shooter, but Ball looks the part of the next Lakers star player. He is a low usage, high IQ player that makes everyone around him better.

It might seem complicated to pair him with starting point guard Russell, but Russell has far from locked down his role with the franchise going forward (I’ll say!). The Lakers will let them compete for the top job, and at times play them together sliding Ball to the 2 guard spot . Ignore the noise about Big Baller Brand and Lavar Ball’s outlandish claims, the kid can play – and now that the Lottery Gods have smiled on the Lakers once more, Ball will have a shot at perhaps the greatest pantheon in the NBA.

Good luck on the Swamp Dragons next year Russell!

Sixers

#3 – Malik Monk

This is a very interesting case, as around the league many consider Josh Jackson a solid number 3 on their draft boards. But though he caught fire for the latter half of his season at Kansas, his shot mechanics and free throw % (an abysmal 56%) leave glaring questions when it comes to his ability to reliably knock down jumpers at the NBA level.  Though Jackson is an undeniable talent, the Sixers are perhaps finally in a position to begin considering fit. Now, 9 times out of 10 I would guess a team would the best player available, but the Sixers might be a unique case.  The Sixers lack a “traditional” point guard and perimeter shooting to create space for Embiid and last year’s number 1 pick (and 6 ft 10 in) Ben Simmons.  With just how vocal coach Brett Brown has been about giving the Simmons-at-point experiment a real shot, don’t expect them to fill what some would say is their biggest nominal need at the 1. (In fairness…did anyone expect them to get Fultz? That shit was crazy even as it happened. I’m still in disbelief)

So if not Jackson or perhaps Fox, what will the Sixers do?(Trade for Markelle Fultz) What Brian Colangelo might look to do instead is to offset their greatest offensive weakness by adding Malik Monk from Kentucky trading for Markelle Fultz. Hell, the Sixers may even be able to trade down a few spots and still land Monk, for MARKELLE FREAKING FULTZ a near 40% shooter from deep.

Monk proved over the course of the year and the tournament that he works great off the ball and will not shy away from the big stage  that he’s in the mold of a more athletic Lou Williams  less good version of Markelle Fultz, who may in the long run be able to run more pick and roll.

Monk Fultz was limited in his opportunities at Washington because is team was terrible as a primary ball handler due to the rise of fellow lottery pick De’Aaron Fox, but it’s not a forgone conclusion that he can’t take backup ball handling duties. Remember that Devin Booker Ben Simmons was similarly lost among a star studded Kentucky team crappy supporting cast not too long ago, and you can talk yourself into Monk Fultz as a competent future playmaker in addition to a scorer. A starting lineup of Embiid, Simmons, Covington  and Monk  Fultz?

“Trust the Process” indeed.

 

 Suns

#4 – Josh Jackson

It has been many years since “7 Seconds or Less” and the path to relevance for the Suns is not going to be easy (This path definitely does NOT include trading for Kevin Love to facilitate a PG13 to Cav’s deal).  As the saying goes though, when you’re at the bottom there is nowhere to go but up. And the Suns worked hard to get to the bottom, facilitating a tanking job as shameless as any of the finest Hinkie-led efforts in Philadelphia. But unlike the Sixers, the Suns don’t have a top 3 pick to show for it. They are in desperate need of forwards that can score, facilitate and defend alongside the dynamic Devin Booker. Enter the aforementioned Josh Jackson, a versatile forward who can defend 1 through 5, play-make, rebound, and attack the basket. If Jackson’s hot shooting season translates into a consistent outside stroke, he could very well end up the best player in the draft. This is far from a sure thing, and Jackson is a definite risk to never reach his star ceiling. But even if his shot doesn’t develop, his highly competitive spirit and defensive upside will bring a much needed edge to a Suns squad that hasn’t seen the playoffs in 7 seasons.

Kings

#5 – De’Aaron Fox

De’Aaron Fox improved his stock perhaps more than any other prospect by his participation in the tournament, where in addition to thoroughly outplaying Lonzo, he also demonstrated an ability to score and take over games that left front offices buzzing. A post-Cousins Sacramento would be lucky to land Fox, who would have a chance to develop along a John Wall like trajectory. He has incredible speed and explosiveness unmatched by anyone in the lottery, and unlike Wall he has shown full time devotion to the defensive side of the ball. It would be an understatement to call his 3 point shot a work in progress, but his free throw rate and mechanics are promising at least – his recent addition of a reliable mid-range pull up should also give the Kings hope that he can develop a passable outside shot in time. Fox is by reputation a worker, with a tenacity that translates into a hyper aggressive play style on both end of the floor. He’s been wowing front offices around the league during the interview process, and if teams are torn between two similarly attractive prospects Fox’s personality will push him over the edge.

 

Magic

#6 – Jason Tatum

Jason Tatum. The Magic are one of the more rudderless organizations in the league,(Cavaliers/Knicks/Lakers/Pacers/Bulls/Hawks: Hold my beer)  to the degree that we can’t even say for sure who will be making this pick come draft day (Do we think John Hammond brought his own white board?) after the recent firing of noted trade mark Rob Hennigan. Their team is full of defense first players that try to do too much on offense, for all his virtues, Bismack Biyombo should never have a post-up in an NBA game. Ever. The Magic have struggled in recent years to identify the right players in the draft, contributors with potential to grow into larger roles with the right developmental regimen. What they lack is one of the most valuable commodities in the NBA, a go to “give me the damn ball in crunch time” scorer. Jason Tatum fits the bill. He’s an isolation scorer polished beyond his years in the Carmelo Anthony mold. His handle needs work and he still settles for too many tough mid-range jumpers (which limit his attempts at the line) but he is a very efficient scorer when he gets to his spots. He has the speed and frame to defend both forward spots, but is far from polished on that end. The outline of a complete two way star forward is here and Frank Vogel has a proven player development track record (see: George, Paul). He’s not a sure thing because he is not as physically dominant at the rim as Melo was, but his jab step will make you think you’re seeing his ghost.

 

Wolves

#7 – Jonathon Isaac

The Wolves are one of the more difficult teams to get a feel for (In retrospect it turns out that they are about average!). From the outside it seems that their biggest need is the same as it was last year, at the point guard spot. And while this is a draft ostensibly loaded with prospective star point guards – Thibodeou might not be willing to move on from last year’s selection Kris Dunn. Dunn came in as a 4 year college player and was touted as ready to compete on both ends from day one. He struggled mightily however and his improvement has left a lot to be desired. It’s of course still possible that Dunn turns the corner, and the lesson has been learned time and time again about giving up on young guards too soon in their careers. Thibs has gotten a lot out of point guards as a coach before, so I’m guessing that they try to ride things out with Dunn a little bit longer. So assuming they don’t go for a guard, I think they will look at someone like Jonathon Isaac.

Isaac doesn’t project to have star ceiling like the other top wings in the draft, but he arguably has the highest floor. He is talented and committed on the defensive end and will be able to switch on defense, exactly the kind of versatility that Thibs has been sorely missing on his roster. Perhaps most encouraging is that even though he’s extremely thin, he rebounds and blocks very well for his position. This shows a tenacity that will only benefit from his further developing body, but for now he will get outmatched in the post by most traditional 4’s. He’s an ok shooter with decent release – he won’t be shooting a high volume of pull ups any time soon –  but that’s not what he Wolves really need. Indeed it’s possible he’ll benefit from a reduced load that would come from playing a supporting role to the transcendent Karl Anthony-Towns and former number 1 pick Andrew Wiggins.

Knicks

#8 – Frank Ntilikina

The Knicks struggles this year are directly tied to KP’s stagnating development. Though the big man improved in every category, his growth stalled when the team’s fortunes took a nose dive after a promising 14-10 start. The Knicks need to divest themselves of the Derrick Rose experiment (Actually they shouldn – no, kidding, this is an Evergreen Statement) and find a point guard that is a willing passer, wing defender, and secondary scorer.  Phil Jackson seems determined to find players that will fit inside the Triangle offense and Knicks owner Jim Dolan seems determined to enable him. Additionally the Knicks, having struck gold by relying on their intel recently, have good reason to rely on the wisdom of their European scouting division and particularly one Clarence Gains. All that taken into account the Knicks will take a very close look at young Belgian (No he’s not French) point guard prospect Frank Ntilikina. The 18 year old Ntilikina is one of the bigger mysteries at this year’s draft, as unlike most other lottery picks he acted as a role player for his club team in France. Coming off the bench meant fewer minutes and fewer opportunities, but it also meant that the fundamentals of his game were on display. He can defend, he makes the right play, and he doesn’t go outside himself.

His biggest flaw is that he doesn’t have the natural explosion to get to the basket that almost every star point guard has, and so he ends up pulling up on his drives almost without fail. His lack of speed doesn’t affect his tenacity on defense but does limit his ability to get to the basket and make plays. The downside if this doesn’t’ change is that he just won’t be an efficient volume scorer in the NBA. The upside if it does? This is literally the only thing preventing him from showing as a sure fire star, and there’s a chance that Frank ends up the steal of the first round 2 years from now.

Unlike many of the other guards in the top 10, it doesn’t seem that Frank is as well suited to be a ball dominant player for his squad. But as a supporting player to Porzingis he might be just right. His wingspan is rumoured to be in the 7 foot range, which means that if he puts on weight it’s conceivable that down the road he could switch 1 through 3. Players on the wing that can guard 1-3 and stroke 3’s are very valuable players even if they never become stars.

Mavericks

#9 – Dennis Smith

The Mavericks are caught between eras, much like the final years of the recent Kobe led Lakers. There is the vague (Read: very* vague. ) outline of a young core – Barnes and Noel – that the Mav’s hopes develop into at least pseudo-stars in their own right. But for now Dirk and JJ Barea are carrying the fire of a quickly fading age of Mavericks glory. They have a clear need at point guard to eventually take over from the 32 year old Barea and in theory this draft should provide some good options. However, because Cuban refused to sully any of Dirks remaining years and commit to a full on tank job, they don’t have the possibility of drafting one of the 3 clearly elite point guards in the top 5. The Mavericks will take the best point guard available. And if things go according to the above, that player will be Dennis Smith.

Smith is perhaps the strongest point guard in the likely lottery group and excels at one on one scoring and flashes potential of being a perfect facilitator for the modern NBA. Smith is built to run the modern pick and roll offense, and studying under Carlisle will give him a great chance to maximize his ceiling. He picks up his dribble too much and he had difficulty finding chemistry with his teammates as the star of a disappointing N.C. State squad, but surround this kid with NBA shooters and run the high pick and roll and good things will happen.  Could personality issues derail his career? Yes. But Mark Cuban has to like the odds of taking a player at 9 who has even an outside shot of being the best player in the draft.

 

Kings

#10 – Lauri Markkanen

The beauty of the Kings position is that they just need bodies. The Kings don’t have to draft by need because literally everything is a need. That said, they need to nail these picks if their franchise is going to have any kind of playoff (let alone championship) aspiration in the next 5 years. The Kings would be wise to spread out their risk some and take a high tier prospect with one of the higher projected “floors” and pair them with more of a long shot with the worse of their two picks. Outside the top 8 the star certainty in this draft fades, but there remain numerous players with the glint of something special. If they can land Fox or one of the other premier point guard talents, the Kings should feel comfortable taking a shot at more of a project player.

The project in question could be Lauri Markkanen, a 7 foot Fin with an outside stroke unmatched by any other player in the lottery save perhaps Malik Monk. Markkanen has the best shooting splits of anyone in the draft, and with his size it will be extremely difficult for even centers at the NBA level to bother his shot once he gets into his motion. Like most power forwards his size, strength and conditioning will be an issue early on in his career, but the promising play of Porzingis shows the path forward for players in this mold. He doesn’t make plays or rebound as effectively as you would like, but the upside from a positional stand point is there. He is surprisingly agile on switches, and if nurtured correctly he could have a future as a spot 5 in super small ball lineups.

The Kings haven’t adapted to the modern NBA as quickly as some other franchises, drafting plodding centers in draft after draft. But they’ll give Markkanen real thought based on his immediate value as a shooter alone.

Note, the kid isn’t going to win any personality contests. He gave an interview on the Full 48 Pod Tuesday that may hurt Finland’s tourism industry going forward. It is not an exaggeration to say that his closing Borat impersonation was the most original thing he brought to the table.

Notes

• *1 A very vague outline. Like we tried to put white out over the outline but you can tell by the texture of the paper that something was there once so you don’t get a full sense of the picture but also you don’t want to accidentally trace over it in case you tear through the paper. That level of vague.

 

I haven’t posted on here regularly in a long time because I’ve been writing for a different basketball gods related blog (Yes, really) because as a general principal getting paid to write about hoops is better than not getting paid. But for the time being I’m going to be posting on here with all my off season work for…reasons!

In any case, I have been writing and rewriting NBA Pre-Draft articles for months now, almost none of which have seen the light of day. So, first for kicks I’ll post my latest-yet-extremely-dated-already article (Pre-Fultz Trade) and hopefully I’ll follow that up with a draft order prediction piece just prior to Thursday night.
In addition I have a lot of long simmering thoughts about who the Knicks should take that I’ll either squeeze into that piece or I’ll throw together a short blurb on my preferred selections. Just the sort of depth of research and prep that you all love me for.

After that? Who knows! NBA Trade Twitter seems like it’s on Dexedrine today so I doubt very much I’ll have trouble with things to write about.

The Basketball Gods Will Be Watching.

Knicks vs Kings Game Preview

Can the home dominant Knicks take advantage of a sputtering Kings squad?

 

The Knicks enter Sunday afternoons game as the winner of 7 of their last 10 contests, counting themselves in the upper echelon of home record teams with an emphatic 8-3 record at MSG.

The Kings have gotten off to an uneven start this season which has become all but habitual for them in recent years. Despite the transcendent talent of DeMarcus Cousins, the ever shuffling cast of characters Kings ownership have put around him have still never landed a playoff berth in his entire tenure in the league. This stakes are even higher this year with DeMarcus getting closer to free agency in 2018, and if the Kings stumble early Sacramento might have to finally bite the bullet and trade their only honest to goodness star.

The Knicks expected starting 5 will be Joakim Noah, Kristaps, Melo, Justin Holiday, and Derek Rose. Joakim Noah is listed as available after his most recent ankle injury and Courtney Lee remains out after suffering the same injury after a good start against the Timberwolves on Friday. The Knicks have been rolling on offense without Noah in the starting lineup, and his defensive execution just hasn’t been there consistently yet to start the season. This will be the perfect test of Noah’s value. If Noah can outhustle Cousins, frustrate him, and generally shut him down – the Knicks win this game.

But coming off an injury and uneven play, the Knicks will require their backup bigs to contain Cousins if Noah proves ineffective. Sacramento will be playing through Boogie as much as possible and the key to controlling the game will be some combination of Kyle O’Quinn and Plumlee keeping him from getting the ball in good positions.

Not unlike the Knicks of yesteryear, the Kings this year have been getting out to abysmal starts, which forces them to play catch up the rest of the way. It’s disheartening to lose that way over and over, as every Knicks fan can attest to, and it also gets to you mentally. If the Knicks come with a haymaker early on Sunday, the Kings have not proven to be a very mentally durable team. Push the right buttons, make the right plays, and the Knicks could wrap this one up early. If not, expect a very tough, bruising game dominated by Cousins and just the right amount of Rudy Gay hero-ball.

Prediction: Knicks win 109-104

 

3 Things to keep an eye on

 

• The ongoing evolution of the NBA big man. While players like Kristaps and Karl Anthony-Towns represent the future of the big man in the NBA, the tides of change are strong enough that even previously old school ground and pound bigs like Cousins are acting accordingly. Cousins lead his team in 3 point attempts, makes, and % for players with at least 20 attempts. That’s nuts.

 

• The rebounding situation. The Knicks have been a so-so rebounding team with occasional moments of brilliance this year, but they have struggled against teams with strong front lines like Oklahoma City. Porzingis is the long term solution at the 5, but the Knicks team rebounding suffers significantly when he spots minutes there. Even last year his better rebounding performances came as a result of the excellent boxing out of Robin Lopez, a skill that no current Knick duplicates quite as well. The Kings are going to try and muscle the Knicks early and often, effort is going to count for a lot here

 

• The Kings, though inconsistent, are capable of trotting out lineups with long and strong defenders at every position. Garret Temple has been solid this year, Cauley-Stein is athletic and moves well, and Matt Barnes is long and a general pest to play against. If the Knicks are without Lee, Rose and Holiday are going to have their hands full.

 

Clippers-Blazers Mid-Series Check In

Or

“More people worship the Rising Sun than the Setting Sun”

(but the Setting Sun will still kick the Rising Suns ass from time to time)

 

The Set Up

With the series standing at 2-0 and headed to Portland, many are quickly backpedaling away from the “must call upset” of the first round. It was always ridiculous to call an upset here, and the prevalence of this narrative speaks to some combination of the feel good Cinderella vibes around the Blazers, lingering Clipper dislike (read: hatred) and the fact that even though the Clippers have once more been a great regular season team (even without Blake Griffin) nobody expects them to make much noise in the playoffs.

To the last point I say: ok, I’ll give you that.

But! This Clippers team is still really, really good. Their starting 5 remains as potent as ever and their role players are looking more comfortable than they have in a long time. People are in love with the young and hungry Blazers, but reality is setting in – Damian Lillard is amazing, but Chris Paul is his worst possible match up, capable of shutting down just about every action Dame tries to initiate. Newly anointed Most Improved Player CJ Mccollum is a great young guard, but he’s older than you think (24) making him older than guards Kyrie Irving, Bradley Beal, Brandon Knight, and Dennis Schroeder. The honeymoon period where Al Faruq Aminu was a 3 point sniper has definitively passed. Meyers Leonard remains out for the season, and to call Mason Plumlee a poor man’s Deandre Jordan is more of a stretch than expecting DJ to lead the team in free throw percentage. The Blazers have done a great job of rebuilding on the fly and their future is bright, but the Clippers, perhaps never destined for more than a Western Conference Semis defeat, are just too good for them.

The Stakes

The stakes for the two teams are similarly lopsided. Both Doc Rivers the GM and Doc the Coach have been upfront about the fact that the window for this Clippers core is drawing to a close and CP3, Blake, Deandre Jordan, and JJ Redick have formed one of the absolute best starting units in the NBA for 3 years running now.

That being said, they have had less and less playoff success even as their team has grown together with experience. Where once they could knock around a young Warriors team, nobody takes their chances in the second round too seriously. This might have been simply the case of a team that got good at the wrong time, but it also can’t be ignored that the Clippers have been perennial chokers the last few seasons.

Chris Paul is one of the best point guards of all time, his playmaking, offensive efficiency, and defensive tenacity are all off the charts. But with rare exception ( Read: hamstring game-winner over the Spurs last year) Chris Paul has been shaky in the playoffs, often turning the ball over in key moments and showering visible frustration upon his teammates when they also fail to perform. Paul is playing for more than a legacy, he’s playing for his dignity. It isn’t fair that one of the best point guards of his generation should be in this position, but the Basketball Gods are rarely fair.

Blake Griffin was outstanding in the 2015 playoffs, putting up an MVP like 25, 10, and 6 average. But Blake has been worse than CP3 in tight situations, turning the ball over with the game on the line on numerous occasions and allowing the Rockets to steal their appearance in the Western Conference Finals. Given the way the season unfolded, if the Clippers fold, it may be Blake that first finds himself on the move.

The Blazers on the other hand are playing with house money this year as nobody expected them to make the playoffs, much less the 5 seed in a highly competitive Western Conference. Neil Olshey should receive ample consideration for Executive of the Year for this group, with only 1 starter returning they have managed to put together a lot of young players that seem to like playing for each other. This is really hard to do particularly when you have a ball dominant guard that creates much of your offense (See Rockets, Houston). It’s no secret that this teams greatest strength is its back court, and it is just unrealistic to expect these over achievers to pull off the upset when Chris Paul will be defending Dame possession after possession.

And that’s fine. The Blazers will lose this series, and unless they make serious adjustments they were unwilling to make in game 2, it will be a sweep. But its good experience for a young team, and given where they started out the year, a 4-0 defeat will only leave a slightly bitter aftertaste after what was a stellar season.

 

The Game Plan for the Clips

The game plan for the Clippers has been to play through their bigs, pound the ball inside past Plumlee and Aminu, and they’ve been doings so at will.  Griffin has shown no signs of rust whatsoever, he’s been extremely aggressive around the rim and seems totally at ease facilitating the action from the elbows. Mason Plumlee had a great performance in game 2 and really kept the Blazers in it longer than they probably should have been, but DJ is gobbling up rebounds and put backs, and with no reason for the Clips centers to ever leave the paint, the Blazers guards are finding themselves rejected at the rim over and over (Shout out to former Knick Cole Aldrich!).

The Clips bigs are more than competent enough to allow Paul, Redick, Rivers and co to stay home on the wing, and that’s what they’ve done. They have blitzed and trapped Dame at will, forcing him to give up the ball over and over and getting him away from his favourite spots.They will continue to let anyone but Dame shoot if the Blazers let them, and they will win by doing so.

The Clippers only need to draw even in guard play to dominate, and so far JJ Redick and Paul are beating the Blazers starting duo handily.

The Game Plan for the Blazers

If Portland is going to have any chance, they are going to have to get the Clippers out of rhythm with their defence and shoot the lights out from downtown, this means they are going to have to hack, hack, hack DJ out of the lineup early and often.

This means that the Blazers will not have many opportunities for fast breaks, and so their set plays and half-court execution have to be exceptional. This is asking a lot of a young team, and if they go this route they will have to get the most out of that youth, and try to pass and run the Clips into the ground, with long possessions, lots of ball movement, and endless cutting to wear the older Clippers out. They did a better job making more cuts in game 2, but they went away from this as the game went on and it was to their detriment.

They need to give more minutes to Gerald Henderson and Mo Harkless, both of whom have played great all round ball in games 1 and 2. They need to consider going even smaller than they have already, particularly since the Clippers are not respecting Aminu’s shot (and he’s not making them) he needs to sit. They need to stretch the floor and draw at least one of the Clippers bigs to the perimeter, and Aminu isn’t cutting it in that department.

Further they need to recognize that they’re being funneled into the shot blocker way too much, and would be better off running a lot more high screen, or double screen action above the break to get Lillard some clean looks from 3. And they can’t go away from this just because shots don’t fall, the paint may look vulnerable but the Clippers are much happier with Dame driving than shooting.

Final Word

I love Lillard and this Blazers team has a lot of heart, but the Clippers are set to rip it out of their chest. If the Blazers don’t make major adjustments on offense, focus on 3 point shooting, and make liberal use of the hack-a-strategy early and often, this Cinderella story is set to call curtain will before midnight.

 

CLIPPERS IN FIVE

The Path to Rookie of the Year

or

Lofty Expectations for a Lengthy Latvian

I want to say first of all that Porzingis has exceeded my fairly lofty expectations coming into the regular season. This kid is something special and as a Knicks fan I couldn’t be more pleased.

After putting together a pretty strong showing in Summer League and the Preseason, I still didn’t expect the kid to contribute this much so quickly. Kristaps Porzingis was receiving the Bruno treatment by Exec’s and Media prior to the regular season (2 years away from being X + ∞ years away) and even though his offensive efficiency hasn’t quite caught up to the hype, he has showcased a skill set unheard of in a 7’3” player (much less a rookie). In fact, with improvements in a handful of areas, KP has a legitimate shot at winning the Rookie of the Year award in 2016.

As it stands, KP is second only to Karl-Anthony Towns in the current Rookie of the Year race.

Through 12 games their per 36 minutes numbers are strikingly similar, with Towns having the only significant edges in 2 point shooting efficiency and 1.3 more blocks per 36. KAT also leads slightly in points, assists, and overall rebounds. Porzingis leads with more offensive rebounding, steals, 3 point % and attempts. These players really are neck and neck early in the season.

And given that Towns is perhaps already the best player on his team, this is astounding. KAT has through 12 games proven to be the best so far among a very impressive draft class but KP has a realistic shot of chasing him down. In order to win that race, KP is going to need to improve in the following key areas:

 

1. Low Shooting Efficiency

After giving an already legendary pre-draft workout  that dropped jaws for his silky stroke, KP has shot a low percentage through 12 games. With a true shooting percentage (below 50%) that is comparable to fellow Knicks rookie Jerian Grant, who is very much not a shooter, KP is underachieving on what appeared initially to be his biggest strength. There are a few key reasons I’ve seen for this so far.
For starters Kristaps is playing with a fluctuating level of confidence, which is plenty normal for a rookie. At times early in games (and quarters) he is too deferential, passing out of a lot of good looks, particularly from beyond the arc. I’m not particularly worried about this tendency, as it must be very difficult to figure out where you land in the pecking order as a rookie playing with a starting 5 of all vets, particularly when one is a score first option like Melo. That said, KP absolutely needs to take his spot up shooting chances as they come to him. He did exactly that on Tuesday against the Hornets and by doing so he made the game look easy and put up a cool 29 points with his best shooting game of the season (10-17, 2-2 from downtown).

On the flipside KP can border on over-confident with his shot selection from time to time. Notably, he attempts some shots that have an incredibly high degree of difficulty. He pulls out vintage Dirk type moves, the classic turnaround one footer off the glass type stuff from 15 feet and (a lot further) out. He made a couple of these in Summer League, but I don’t think I’ve seen him hit one since. However, he’s flashed some serious knock down skill shooting straight on from the baseline (dream shaking dudes out of the way while he’s at it). If he can keep it simple this year, his midrange % will improve.

Also hurting his efficiency is his tendency to rush his shots after an offensive rebound near the basket, as he gains more confidence and strength, he\ll get more comfortable gathering before going up strong. In the recent Pelicans game he misses 3 quick bunnies right at the hoop, which kills his field goal percentage. If he can make these shots without consistently without rushing them, his field goal percentage will get better.

Despite being seen as a 3-point sniper coming out the draft, KP has failed to make much of a dent on that end. KP’s 3-point % has been poor, shooting around 27% on 34 shots. Now, for a rookie, even one that boasts shooting chops, this isn’t as terrible as it might first appear. Dirk for example, shot just a hair above 20% his rookie season on 68 shots and is the quintessential shooting big of the modern NBA. Hell, Porzingis’ teammate Jose Calderon, who is one of the most consistently good 3 point shooters ever, shot less than 17% his rookie season.

 

All reports seem to indicate that Porzingis’ stroke is still silky smooth in practice (and it sure looks good, even when he misses), so I’m betting that his 3-point percentage will improve with better conditioning and more in game reps. One other thing of note is that KP has a very long follow through motion due to pure biomechanics (ie being 30 ft tall with a 65 ft wingspan) but he’ll get cleaner looks if he can get into his shooting motion from higher up. If he can catch the ball high and shoot without bringing it all the way down, it will open up more spot up opportunities for him. Some of this will be about his teammates adjusting their passing (I’m looking at you, Lance Thomas) to allow him to get into his shooting motion faster.
As KP continues to improve his conditioning and finds the right balance between taking more of his passed up attempts early in the action and passing or driving out of some of his higher difficulty shots, I would expect his shooting percentages to pick up significantly.

 

2. Bad Hands Leading To Live Ball Turnovers

 

There’s no good way to say it. Through 7 games, KP has had bad hands. He has frequently fumbled pocket passes or a entry passes into the post and a lot of these have resulted in live ball turnovers that the Knicks have zero chance to defend. Some of these, its clear, are the result of the very-much-still-developing chemistry on this very-much-still-developing Knicks squad. He’s missed some nice dishes from Jerian Grant on the roll and he committed some key turnovers down the stretch against the Bucks on November 6th that put the game out of reach.  Again some of this is team chemistry, but some of this is on KP too. Now, his turnovers haven’t been exceptionally high for a rookie, but a lot his fumbles haven’t lead directly to credited turnovers. He’s still looked shaky getting those passes into the post, which has led to some hesitation from his teammates to get him the ball there quickly in a set, which in turn has resulted in some ugly Hey-Over-Here-Telgraphed passes that have resulted in opponent steals and fast breaks.

This is really just a matter of practice as the kid is clearly highly coordinated (despite his alien like frame) but for now it’s something he needs to work on. Improvement in this area will also bolster his already impressive rebound rate, which ranks among best in the league in offensive rebounds ( was 7^th, now 19th  **See Footnote**).

 

3. Foul Trouble, Early And Often

 

And now onto the most popular of all recent Kristaps related topics: Fouls. With a staggering 6.8 fouls per 36 minutes through 7 games, KP had been struggling to stay on the floor. People on message boards and particularly over on P&T have laid a lot of the blame on the NYK back court which is allowing an ungodly amount of dribble penetration that KP is having to clean up. To his credit KP himself has owned sole responsibility, and this report by Chris Herring of the Wall Street Journal citing Sport VU footage seems to vindicate the Knicks guards (well, of this particular sin, in any case). So it seems to be on the kid himself, and that’s ok – rookies foul a lot, rookie big men more than anyone else. He’s definitely committed a few fouls in frustration when executing a bad defensive play, turnover or due to overreaching.

This is a real issue, but it’s exacerbated by one of the great remaining inefficiencies in the NBA today, namely “Personal Foul Mismanagement”.

I’m intending to draw out a larger piece on this topic, but in my eyes the poor management of personal foul troubles seems to be one of the few remaining great uncharted (at least publicly) domains for analytics driven teams. Porzingis has been pulled early in the 1^st quarter a few times already, and has sat long periods during games at critical moments.

Yet despite KP’s foul trouble, he has yet to actually foul out of a single game – so he is missing potentially large swaths of game time unnecessarily. If the argument is that he’s being benched for committing stupid fouls, I’d listen to it, but that doesn’t seem to consistently be the case.  Like a lot of big players, some of the fouls called on KP have been questionable, but his benching has been done as a matter of course, indicating that it is not being done to motivate or incentivize different play.

In his last few games KP has managed to avoid fouling so much as to keep him out of play, and his numbers have spiked accordingly. He’s improvement has dropped his fouls down to 4.9 per 36 and given that he’s averaging around 25 minutes per game, this is a satisfactory improvement as long as he doesn’t sacrifice too much of his defensive tenacity.

 

All this in mind KP has been a revelation. I think that with better shot selection, more seasoning, better hands, further developed chemistry, and a reduction in silly fouls (and hopefully better foul management) Kristaps Porzingis will have a real shot at winning the Rookie of the Year over number 1 pick and beast of a player Karl-Anthony Towns.

And as a Knicks fan, it couldn’t feel stranger and more exciting to say that about one of our players.

Notes.

*** For perspective, Tristan Thompson was recently given an 82 million dollar contract for primarily excelling at this particular skill. At time of writing He ranks 46^th on this list by Hollinger with a rate 3% lower than KP’s.

 

All Quiet on the Western Front

Or

The Good get Better, the Great are become Gods

Just over a week of NBA action is in the books, and it was an absolute doozy. Welcome back everybody (I missed all 3 of you), I had intended to write a couple different pieces over the summer but it didn’t end up happening. One of which was my report back on the Knicks Summer League, Pre-Season and Free Agency moves, and I expect a lot of that material will work its way into my weekly Knicks update posts but at this point a dedicated post seems silly.

The other I wanted to write was about the NYPD police brutality case involving Hawks wing Thabo Sefolosha, which Dave Zirin ended up briefinly covering here http://www.thenation.com/article/seven-things-we-learned-from-thabo-sefoloshas-trial/ (Number 6, about the absolutely failure of the sports media to cover this story in a meaningful way). I may still write something on this – particularly as Thabo’s civil suit progresses – but Zirin summarizes the point I was intending well.
Anyway! Without further ado let’s take a look at the some of the stand out records in the West through Nov 4th. I’m going to break these updates down into West/East for the foreseeable future, with an extra healthy heaping of Knicks coverage thrown in because I’m doing my best to watch every game they play this year (and early signs are, they signed the right rookies).

So! Onto the records, starting with the best of the best.

WARRIORS 5-0

The Warriors are a resounding 5 and 0 with their down to the wire win over the LA Clippers last night. Steph Curry is making anyone who second guessed his MVP status (ie the players association voters) look like a damn fool. He has more combined points through 4 games than any player since ‘91 Jordan not to mention the fact that his team is playing so well that he’s sitting in the 4th quarter more often than not. They beat the Grizzlies by a whopping 50 points, the worst loss in franchise history, and recall that for years the star player for the Grizzlies was one “Big Country” Reeves. This bodes poorly for the still playoff bound Grizz, a team that was up 2-1 on the Warriors in the second round just last year. The only bummer here? Coach Kerr has missed the entirety of the season thus far recovering from back surgery and there is no time table for his return. Worse yet, rumours have surfaced that he may not return until after the All Star break.

CLIPPERS 4-1

I’ve never felt so bad for a team that was 4-1. Similar to the Spurs this team’s hot start has been a lot about schedule, but we have good reason to believe that this is the best incarnation of the Clippers in the Chris Paul era. I don’t quite know when I turned the corner on hating the Clippers, but I think it has a lot to do with wanting Chris Paul to get some validation. The loss to the Warriors hurt, and the memes today have been plentiful. But the Clippers were right there and until the Spurs gel they represent the most realistic challenge to the incumbent NBA Champions. Blake Griffin and DJ continue to impress, Austin Rivers has been surprisingly consistent, and JJ Redick is having a career year as usual. We won’t know until June whether it will be enough, but last night confirmed that it is going to be entertaining as hell to watch them take their shot at the throne.

SPURS 3-2

The Spurs have feasted on an easy schedule with wins over the Nets, Celtics, and Knicks their losses coming against the Thunder and at the buzzer against the Wizards. The LMA fit is as awkward as everyone expected it would be to start, and the offense is not running to near its full potential. The Tony Parker decline is real, his averages look better only because he took advantage of the worst starting defensive backcourt in the league (Hello Calderon and Sasha Vujacic!) in what was otherwise a very competitive game with the outmatched Knickerbockers. Is there reason to be concerned? Not really, with other top tier West teams off to shaky starts, Pop will have plenty of time to iron things out as the season progresses and there is nobody more qualified to do just that. And holy hell, Kawhi Leonard is annoying to play against. He shut down KD and Melo in consecutive games and is a serious threat to repeat as DPOY even with Anthony Davis looming.

ROCKETS 2-3

The Rockets, a favourite dark horse championship pick among media members, looked absolutely awful prior to their win over the Thunder. No team has ever lost their first 3 games by 20+ points in a season following a Western Conference Finals appearance. Harden has shot it terribly, Dwight continues to decline and miss games for rest, and the action has looked pretty listless. Kevin McHale has shown himself a good coach in the past, and Ty Lawson is still a great pick up at the price they paid (ie practically nothing), but this team needs to turn it around fast. An overtime win against an up and coming Magic team is nice but this team can and should do better.

PELICANS 0-4

The Pelicans are in real trouble. After an impressive showing against the Warriors in last year’s playoffs and buoyed by the return of former All Star*** Jrue Holiday and introduction of offensive guru Alvin Gentry, some projected the Pelicans to hit in the range of 55 wins. That hope seems already dashed as a string of injuries has absolutely torn the roster to shreds, particularly with the loss of Tyreke Evans. When Toney Douglas is seen as the answer to your prayers, your hopes for a top 4 seed in the West are already over. Anthony Davis, despite putting up numbers, has also shown a disturbing disinterest in some plays that is uncharacteristic of him. Maybe the injuries and the depleted roster are getting to him but if the Pellies are going to stand any chance, he needs to turn into the MVP caliber guy everyone (including me) have anointed him as. And giving 60 million to Omer Asik was quietly one of the two or three worst moves of the off season.

THUNDER 3-2

How much fun are the freaking Thunder? It is an absolute joy to watch Kevin Durant work himself back into form and as happy as the fans are, nobody is happier than Russell Westbrook (who without equivocation, joyously declared KD the best player in the NBA). There’s a real brotherhood here, and Billy Donovan has run some nice offense defense stuff thus far. Dion Waters has outperformed his (admittedly rock bottom) expectations and Kanters defense hasn’t killed them in close ones as much as I thought it might, but more importantly this team has 2 of the 5 best players alive and they are a delight to watch. They went down to the very frisky Raptors and then a got sunk by a surprise return to form by one Derek “They Call Me The Rule” Rose. With another team 3 straight losses might move them to panic, but this team is going to be there in the end. Count on it.

That’ll do it for this week, I’ll do my best to cover some of the lower tier teams next time I circle ‘round to the West.

Next week we’ll break down the Eastern Conference. Are the Raptors for real? Can John Wall garner MVP status? Can the Hornets compete for the 8th seed? Who is giving style advice to the Cleveland Cavaliers? Can a Latvian toothpick with a sweet stroke save a once proud franchise from the garbage heap that is the Atlantic Division?

We’ll see!

Notes:

***Yeah he was playing in the East but still!

I could write a whole other piece on the fun as hell Trailblazers and Timberwolves, and time permitting next time I’ll show them some love. Keep an eye on CJ McCollum as a potential Most Improved Player candidate.

“With the number 4 pick in the NBA Draft. The New York Knicks select – Oh you’ve got to be freaking kidding me – “

This promises to be an interesting draft for Knicks fans. And as with the Knicks, when things are interesting, they are equal parts terrifying. For example “The Knicks are interested in Melo” is interesting. “The Knicks gut entire squad for a trade rather than wait for his impending free agency”. Terrifying. Dig it?

As the only Lottery team to drop (to the Lakers no less, wonder what blood magic Mitch Kupchak had to pull with that one) Knicks fans are going to be waiting anxiously to find out what the hell is going to happen at number 4. This is the highest pick Knicks fans have been able to look forward to since Patrick Ewing,(aka  the Basketball Hero of my childhood), and there are a number of possible scenarios. Lets take a quick look at a few of the most likely.

Scenario one. AKA The Obvious.

All the Kristaps talk and hemming and hawing about “The New NBA” are revealed to be pure unadulterated bull shiiiiiiiit. The top 3 go how they were projected months ago, the two big men proto-stars Towns and Okafor go off the board followed quickly by Russell at 3 to the Sixers.

Moments following the Knicks drop in the lottery this scenario seemed a forgone conclusion, and I immediately did a deep dive on the Adventures of Emmanuel Mudiay in the Chinese Basketball Association. I still strongly feel if the draft goes to the original script that the Knicks ought to draft Mudiay, the kid is an athletic, long, driven guard with great speed and vision ala a John Wall type. His ceiling is an elite playmaker, elite defender, average shooter – for the record he commits one of the greatest sins against the Basketball Gods there is (I’ll compile an exhaustive list someday in the offseason), he cannot make free throws worth a damn. Now mind you, neither can the reigning Finals MVP. I like Mudiay quite a bit, and would be pretty happy if the Knicks simply took him at 4.

And while I hope this is the case, there is what I feel to be a more likely scenario gnawing away at the edges of my remaining sanity.

Scenario two. AKA The Knicks Stay Being the Knicks.

Everything goes to script but the Knicks, fearing Mudiays ability to play in the Triangle (AHHHHHHHHHHH) trade down for a veteran player and a lower value first round pick, and take one of Cameron Payne, Trey Lyles, Frank “The Undefeated Season Killer” Kaminsky, Willie Trill, or Justise “League” Winslow.

This seems increasingly likely to be, particularly with the talk about guards like Bledsoe and Marcus Smart being on the table. Willie Trill is looking at likely ankle surgery to fix some shoddy plate and screw job he got done on his ankle, which makes it likely he’ll miss 6 months whenever a team decides to opt for that. That to me decreases the likelihood that the Knicks “Win Now Worry about Your Forfeited Future Later” braintrust will probably pass.

The pick I like the most in this scenario is Cameron Payne, and we somehow  get a decent rim protector or 3 + D wing out of it, but there are few appealing packages out there.  Word is though that the Knicks like Kaminsky best, who will probably otherwise go to Charlotte at 9 (who are said to covet Mudiay if they can climb)  – who have some attractive players including Kemba Walker, MKG, and the recently acquired former Blazer 3 + D wing Nic Batum. There might be something here, and the Knicks are right to explore all possibilities, but I will scream bloody murder if the Knicks trade out of the 4 spot and don’t get another young 2 way player as part of the deal.

Scenario 3. AKA The Basketball Gods Shine On the Mecca.

The Lakers or Philly takes Porzingis, and the Knicks draft Russell. This is in my opinion the best possible outcome. The concerns about Russell not being an elite athlete (particularly next to say, Mudiay) are real. But you can’t build court vision like this guy has in a gym, and you can’t really even do it with film. Sidebar – this is one of the weirdest parts about the various Brandon Knight deals that have taken place the last couple years. He’s an athlete, he defends alright, he shoots ok, but his court vision is one or two steps to slow. Russell sees the floor the way coaches dream of, some of his passing highlights look downright Jason-Williams-Like. He shot 41 perecent from deep in college, and though that will come down a bit with the further line in the pro’s, the kid can straight up shoot it. We’ve been told over and over that this style of play is the future of the NBA, and if he falls to the Knicks, even Phil Jackson won’t screw this up.

Scenario 4. The Last Minute Shake Up.  With a Boogie or LMA deal now seeming likely (or done), the Lakers abandon the Okafor pick in lieu of Russell, leaving the Sixer’s with a tricky decision.  Or the Lakers take Porzingis, either way the Sixers seem (publically anyway) less enamored with Okafor then some teams and they may trade down with the Celtics for a bucket-load of assets including Marcus Smart and 2 later picks in this draft.

But there is a slim possibility if the Celtics can’t produce a “Grandfather Offer” (eg an Offer they can’t refuse minus the gun to the head part) that the Knicks wind up with Okafor at 4. Now there are some real concerns about Okafor, he’s a one way player, he can’t shoot free throws, and some are questioning his work ethic. The latter seems ridiculous to me, as he’s been working his way up the draft board since middle school, and you don’t do that on talent alone. And as much as I dislike the idea of a centerpiece 5 that can’t defend the paint…he is 19. If the worst thing you can say about a prospect is that he is lost on defence well, that is said about 90+ percent of all rookies their first couple years in the league.

And if the best thing you can is that he has a suite of post moves comparable to Tim Duncan? (Not when he was drafted, like, Tim Duncan now) Then you draft that kid and take a shot at making him an average defender through player development.

Final Thoughts.

This draft will likely determine the arch of the Knicks fortunes for the rest of the Phil Jackson tenure and beyond, the idea that he might decide against Mudiay (or trade down for Kaminsky) because of that system is minorly terrifying and supremely antiquated. I just want the Knicks to draft the talent that comes to them, whether that is an Okafor ( 5% chance), a Russell (20%) or a Mudiay (75%). Watching a bad team is so much more gratifying when you have a young core to follow along the way, and any of these kids projected top 5 could be multi-all-star caliber players with the right nurturing.

I’ve wanted so long to cheer for a player drafted by the Knicks to develop into a star and tonight will either by the first step onto that road, or another soul crushing “What If”. I’ve made my offerings to the Basketball Gods, and all there is to do for Knicks fans (and everyone else for that matter) is watch and wait.

The NBA draft is existential angst at its finest, and I’ll just be happy when it’s over and the horrors of potentiality give way to the mundanity of what is. Until Free Agency of course. Fuck.

Return of the King
Or

A Championship 40 Years in the Making

In case I wasn’t direct enough in the title, let me spell it out for you. The Warriors are going to win this series and be crowned NBA champions for the first time in 40 years. This is Lebron James’ fifth straight finals, and without him this is a team that would probably have lost in the second round to a Bulls team that did not play up to its potential. He is to be commended for an absolutely incredible performance, even though it was for him, kind of mediocre. *See footnote*

If you think that kind of superlative forecasting is an affront to the Basketball Gods, well, good, you’ve been paying attention.

They do punish hubris, as was demonstrated once more when my dreams of jumping a lottery pick from 2 to 1 to snag Karl Anthony Towns resulted in a sad weekend long binge on Chinese Basketball Association film trying to talk myself into a 19 year old guard that can’t hit free throws when the Lakers jumped the Knicks to snag the two spot. The Basketball Gods have a long memory, and the Knicks franchise has committed as many sins in their eyes as anyone.

But my hubris in this case matters not in the eyes of the Basketball Gods because I’m not a Warriors fan, so my super confidence about their chances does nothing to throw a Spike Lee style NBA hex on them. (Note: a Knicks team could go 82-0 regular season and 4,4,4 to reach the finals and I would still find a way to hedge). This is the reality then, the Warriors are the better team, by a significant margin, and this will be a quick (and I hope highly entertaining) Finals.

Just some brief notes on why the Warriors will win this series.

They will do so because their team was the number one offense in the league all season long. They have a mismatch on offense at basically every position, and are a quick pick away from dragging Tristan Thompson to the top of the key against the reigning MVP. Curry’s release is clocked at .4 seconds .4! A jab step or a pump fake and Curry has enough time to get up 2 shots and eat a sandwich against the overmatched (but much improved) Thompson. Throw away your whiteboard as soon as Curry catches the ball Blatt, it will shave years off your life

None of this is to take away from what the Cavaliers have accomplished here. This is a team that lost Kevin Love and came back from 2-1 against the Bulls to follow that up with a sweep of a 60 win team. That is impressive. This is Lebron James fifth straight finals. That is insane.

But…The Cav’s have serious issues. Kyrie Irving cannot guard Klay or Steph, and JR Smith is going to get beat in transition multiple times per game. That is a lot of points they are just not going to get back. This Warriors team is undefeated when it gets up by 15 points this year. They close games. Hard.

Lebron has struggled mightily from everywhere outside the paint, and looked about ready to die after winning the Hawks series. That was 4 games, against a very beat up team and he did not have particularly strenuous defensive assignments. You better believe going at Barnes, Green, Iggy and chasing Cury off switches above the break is going to be a whole lot more taxing.

The Warriors team will have watched the Hawks series, when Coach Bud (former Spurs Assistant coach) employed a tactic that has worked against Lebron at certain times in his career – let him shoot jumpers but deny the post and the rim at any cost – and they had a lot of success. The Warriors will do the same if they need to, and will happily shut down the 3 point line so JR can’t be JR and Dellavedova and Irving sit parked in 3 point land going nowhere. There is nobody on the Warriors that could consistently stop James from posting up if he decides to attack the rim frequently and hard, but Barnes is very strong for his size and Lebron is going to get tired out chasing around this pick and roll heavy, always cutting, track and field enthusiast Warriors team.

Further, Lebron’s jumper has looked shaky during the playoffs, and his 3 point shooting (with notable exception) has dropped off a cliff. For Lebron to be shooting at a sub 30% rate from downtown should be earth shattering stuff and it would be if he still didn’t find a way to win. The Warriors won’t be so brave (or stupid) as to give him open looks but they won’t need to front him or ball deny him beyond 25 feet, and that will buy them crucial steps on switches into the paint and will kill the Cav’s efforts to run high pick and roll plays. And the Cav’s are not very efficient on these sorts of plays to begin with.

Cleveland has looked very good in the playoffs, but this is fool’s gold in a weaker than ever Eastern Conference. The Cav’s offensive system since the Celtics series has devolved into “my turn, your turn” iso-ball of borderline Knicksian proportions, they finish nearly 12 percent of their possessions with an isolation play. And even though they have Irving and James who are some of the best at creating their own shot, this is not going to trouble the Warriors one bit, and it is going to wear on Lebron 40+ minutes a game trying to carry the offense. Paradoxically, the longer this series goes, the better the Warriors chances are of winning any individual game.

All that said, the Warriors are by no means perfect. Klay Thompson has shot poorly for most of the playoffs, and they turn the ball over more than any other playoff team (15.7 times per 100 possessions).  Counter intuitively there is not much here to exploit for the Cav’s. It might be tempting to gamble on passing lanes a lot to exploit sloppy play, but the best way to beat teams with a high turnover rate is to let them do it to themselves. The Cav’s will need discipline on defence, particularly from their wings, and I don’t think Shumpert (given to ball watching) or JR (born to gamble) are in position to take advantage. Kyrie is their best bet to get a bucket on offense if (and this is a very, very big if) he is healthy. If he is healthy the Cav’s will punish Klay or Curry on offense just enough to make up for Irvings sieve-like perimeter defense, and expect whoever spends the lion’s share of time on Kyrie to see their numbers suffer on offense.

Draymond Green, Bogut and Klay are still given to silly fouls that can take them out of the action for crucial stretches, the Cav’s (by which I mean Lebron) will need to pressure these defenders into these kinds of fouls early and often every game to have any hope of shaking the Warriors defence.

It’s been very interesting to watch and read all the various sportscasters analysis of this series the last few days, as it has largely amounted to this:

“Without Lebron on this Cav’s team, I’d pick a sweep. As is, this could be a seven game nail-biter.”

And as much as I respect Lebron as a player and particularly as a playmaker that improves every roster he anchors, this is not going to be pretty. This Warriors team is going to exploit every mismatch and every blown rotation to rain death on the Cav’s.

Think about it. In some ways this Warriors team plays just like last year’s Spurs, except they are younger, faster, and somehow have even more shooting.

This year’s Cav’s team on the other hand would have been crushed by last year’s Heat team. Is this a confusing way of looking at things? Maybe! But stay with me here.

Last year the Heat had comparable shooting on the perimeter (if anything it was a bit better), a legit stretch 4 in Chris Bosh to create space for Wade and James to drive and kick, and a motion offense that was honed to perfection over 4 years of playing together. This is the third incarnation of this Cavaliers team this season.

That being said the current incarnation of the Cavaliers is the best defensively by a mile. But the secret to that defence is also a big weakness on offense as the Cav’s have very little space to work with when Thompson and Mosgov share the floor and you want Lebron driving into the paint. They’ve played together for about 15 minutes a game during these playoffs, and the Warriors should be able to shut down Cav’s sets during these stretches. The Cav’s better hope they break the all-time record for offensive rebounds or risk being run out of the gym.

Familiarity and chemistry counts for a lot and this Cav’s team is short on both. A lot of the “hot takes” I’ve seen on the Warriors since the playoffs started have focused on their “lack of championship experience”, but a lot of the key pieces on this team have made multiple playoff runs together, which is not something you can say about any of the key Cav’s players beyond Lebron.
When it’s all said and done, The Warriors will host the Larry “Least-Compelling-Sports-Trophy-Name” O’Brien in 5 games.

Warriors in 5.

Other Things

JR Smith and Shumpert, Knicks hand-me-downs, are about to be crucial members of a Finals team. The Knicks reward is the 4^th pick, a franchise worst season, and a seemingly inevitable Brook Lopez Max Contract. Christ.

People who are looking at Lebron legacy re: ratio of finals wins, just stop it. 5 straight finals is an incredible feat. You know Larry Bird went 2-3 right? Jerry Freaking West was 1-8. And besides beating the Spurs the first time should basically be like, triple point score

These playoffs feel like they were robbed by denying both Warriors Clippers and Warriors Spurs, and so for that I’m hoping very much to be wrong about my 5 game prediction. Fans deserve a 7 game marathon for putting up with so much hacking and disappointment this injury riddled season.

The case against hacking will probably be hurt by the sound shooting fundamentals of these Finals, I don’t think the league will ever do anything major to the rules around intentional fouling until it ruins a Finals game. But maybe they’ll hack Thompson and Iggy just to prove a point.

This article goes in-depth on Curry’s shooting. Kind of makes me wish I’d called a sweep.

***Note above *** Only Lebron James can have a night with 37 points, 18 rebounds, and 13 assists and you stop and think “He really didn’t play all that well”. But Lebron is a standard of excellence all to himself.

Will the real MVP please stand up?

Or

Two Teams Enter. One Team Leaves.
(Spoiler Alert – It’s the Warriors)

It was not conventional, but after a slew of twists and turns (and collapses of epic proportions) we end up here, with the number one and two seeds playing each other to come out of the Western Conference. Whatever the standings though, let’s not pretend that this is a battle of equals.

The Rockets play in their previous two series (aside from their last 3 games) was less than stellar. James Harden has been extremely inconsistent, and the Rockets oddly enjoyed some of their most successful 5 man lineups against the Clippers when he was on the bench. It’s funny, after the Spurs series mostly everyone, including me, picked the Clippers to just walk right over the Rockets. You really got the sense that they figured something out as a team, and got serious about playing consistently well to fantastic for 48 minutes. And with that series at 3-1, it was the easiest thing to imagine that these Rockets were a Paper Dragon – a talented team on paper and in the regular season, but not a true contender.

Well, they still might not be a true contender, but we can’t underestimate them twice. Just like the Clippers against the Spurs, the Rockets (and particularly their role players) figured something out against the Clippers. If these Rockets can play up to the highs of the last 3 games particularly on the defensive end, where playoff Dwight has once more emerged to terrify at the rim, they can take the Warriors the distance. The Rockets have been tested in a way that few teams ever have been by becoming only the 9^th team to come back from a 3-1 deficit in the playoffs. Not only that, but they did it against a better team – which is exactly what they will have to do this series to stand a chance.

The Warriors took some bruising in the last series, and I think the people of the bay are probably held their collective breath when they fell down 2-1 to the always feisty Grizzlies. Of course their sudden reversal of fortune on their home court was not merely the result of the thrilling play of Marc Gasol, Conley, and Tony Allen, but rather the fact that the Mayors of San Francisco and Oakland had already been discussing a future championship parade, this level of hubris being an affront to The Basketball Gods, their team was punished accordingly.

But there are few things The Basketball Gods (And I, incidentally) love more than a good mid-series adjustment. And Steve Kerr made just such an adjustment, having Andrew Bogut defend Tony Allen, allowing him to sag off and basically play zone in the paint full time in game 4. In the NBA, if you’re open, you’re open for a reason – and Tony Allen struggled to make the Warriors pay for clogging the paint. The Grizz inside out offense dried up, the Warriors hit their 3’s again, and the Grizz were playing from behind without consistent outside shooting the rest of the series.

In any case, these kinds of adjustments are what make good playoff coaches, what makes good playoff teams (Other than, you know, talent) is having highly fungible players, and the Warriors are as fungible as they come. Isn’t that a neat word? It basically means that the Warriors players are each several parts of some world class Swiss army knife, you can put them together in just about any combination and you’ll have the right tools for the situation at hand. And this is their obvious edge against the Rockets, who are missing two starters, including their best perimeter defender in Patrick Beverley and are not built to play more than one way. They are going to do their best to slow the pace when it’s not an open fast break, hit gobs and gobs of free throws, and pray like hell Trevor Ariza can keep the Splash Brothers from their favourite spots beyond the arc.

The Warriors are going to exhaust James Harden. They can throw Klay Thompson, Andre Igoudala, Shaun Livingston, and Harrison Barnes at him without affecting their overall schemes one bit. And who will Harden defend? Any one of those players could take advantage of him on the other end of the floor, particularly as he expends energy quarter by quarter, game by game, against fresh legs on the other end of the floor.

Dwight Howard will need to play a bigger role on offense, which is asking a lot given his immense role on defence. He will be going up against Andrew Bogut and Draymond Green under the rim, both of whom are going to do everything in their power to antagonize him into stupid fouls (and both have a demonstrated knack for this). Dwight will have to outplay them both, and not let any intentional fouling get him out of rhythm or frustrate him into an ejection. Harden will play a key role here as well, he needs to be aggressive driving into the lane and try to get Bogut in early foul trouble – Draymond is amazing and truly defends 1-5, but if he is playing Dwight in the post for 25 plus minutes, that is a huge net win for the Rockets offense.

The Warriors are the deepest team in the league by a country mile, but the Rockets bench showed some serious grit last series. It seems a lot to ask but some combination of Jason Terry, Josh Smith, and Corey Brewer are going to have to outplay Dre, Shaun Sneaky-Good-Post-Ups Livingston, and Harrison Barnes. Don’t be surprised when McHale elects to hack Iggy at some point in this series, for all his skills he still shoots just shy of 60% from the stripe. That may not seem like much of an edge, but if the other option is Curry and Klay in rhythm? Easy choice.

This series will seemingly be a referendum on the season long “Curry or Harden”? MVP discussion, but don’t be fooled. Both are incredible players, but it has been Curry both in the regular season and the playoffs. People consistently underestimate the difference between taking a team from good to great, and from great to historically good. But if the Rockets can even take this to seven games, you’ll hear the same arguments again. Harden is more important to the Rockets success! Look at the record he built with the spare parts and castoffs of other teams!

Well, those spare parts won the last series and got them this far. (Shout out to Ex-Knick Pablo Prigioni, Hero of Game 7. You are missed)

If this goes seven, I won’t reconsider whether or not Harden should have been the MVP, but I will seriously reconsider whether or not Kevin McHale should have been getting nods for Coach of the Year.

Prediction – Warriors in 6